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- Business cycle dating committee defines a recession - Forms for dating my daughter?
A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is formally in an expansion; between peak and trough it is in a recession.
Business Cycle Dating Committee FAQs | Centre for Economic Policy Research
In both cases, growth rates may be very low. To reduce the chance that data revisions might lead the Committee to reconsider its choice of turning points in the future, the Committee examines a wide array of economic data in addition to GDP, such as the individual components of output and labor market data.
- Business cycle dating committee members.
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- Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee Releases 2017 Findings.
The practice of examining the joint evolution of several key macroeconomic aggregates has been followed by the committee since its inception. What data does the Committee use?
The financial press often states the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. How does that relate to your recession dating procedure? As an example, the Committee has identified the period from the first quarter in to the third quarter in as a recession, despite the fact that real GDP was growing in some quarters during that episode and that real GDP was higher at the end of the recession than at the beginning. As another example, the Committee did not declare a recession for or , even though the data at the time appeared to show a decline in economic activity though not for two quarters.
Subsequent data revisions have erased these declines.
Reference date (United States business cycles)
First, we do not identify economic activity solely with real GDP, but use a range of indicators, notably employment. Second, we consider the depth of the decline in economic activity. The following period is an expansion. How long does the Committee expect the recession to last?
The Committee does not forecast. How is the Committee's membership determined?
The President and the Research Director are ex officio members of the Committee. Does the Committee date recessions for individual countries in the euro area? No, the sole objective of the Committee is to date recessions for the euro area as a whole. Why does the Committee not date recessions for individual countries?
Is it possible that the EU area is in a recession while some of the individual countries are not? The Committee wants to make sure that its characterization of Euro-area economic activity which is its sole objective is not affected by rising heterogeneity in the Euro-area.